Tag: statistics

The Results – Run-in predictions for Arsenal, Man Utd and Chelsea: Did they work?

On By jamesgillespIn Arsenal

As the final few games of the season approached in May I attempted to analyse the possible results and predict an outcome to the title race. Now in June, with the season well and truly behind us, it seems a good point to dissect the results and have a look at what actually happened in those last few games.

The original prediction was based on the last eight games Arsenal had to play, and compared the individual records against each team and the final eight games of each season. These methods both provided a result of 15.8 points from eight games, which would have put us on 80 points at the end.

In reality Arsenal achieved 75 points, and so actually fell short of the prediction by 5 points. A massive amount in real terms. Meaning we took 11/18 points or 61%.

Continue reading “The Results – Run-in predictions for Arsenal, Man Utd and Chelsea: Did they work?” →

Premier League Run-in: The Stats for Chelsea, Man Utd and Arsenal’s Last 5 Games

On By jamesgillespIn Arsenal, Data10 Comments

The last 5 games of the League are going to decide the season, here we attempt to make sense of the stats from the past 4 years to understand the run-ins for Chelsea, Man Utd and Arsenal.

My previous statistical analysis of Arsenal’s run-in predicted that we would take something like 16 points from our last 8 games, or 65.7% of the points available.

Continue reading “Premier League Run-in: The Stats for Chelsea, Man Utd and Arsenal’s Last 5 Games” →

Arsenal’s ‘easy run in’ may not be so easy – The real facts

On By jamesgillespIn Arsenal29 Comments


The consensus in football at the moment is that Arsenal’s final eight games are going to be much softer than Man Utd or Chelsea’s. I do agree that on paper they are easier fixtures, and Man Utd and Chelsea have to play each other and Liverpool – all games where points can be won.

On the other hand the so called smaller teams are where we have struggled to pick up the points in the past. This season so far has seen Arsenal improve their consistency in results against these sort of teams – the wins against Stoke and Hull away showed the team’s ability to dig deep. Here we look at the historical data and see whether Arsenal’s run in really is as easy as it seems.

Continue reading “Arsenal’s ‘easy run in’ may not be so easy – The real facts” →

Gallas Gets Us There

On By jamesgillespIn Arsenal2 Comments

A good 2-0 win over Wigan this weekend. We were without Fabregas (suspended), Flamini (thigh), Diaby (back) and and Gilberto (fatigue). Also we lost Hleb for 3 weeks, these Opta stats on Setanta are interesting.

The match itself was not particularly entertaining. I went down to the Armoury to get a stripy scarf before the kick off, but they were all sold out! They are really popular right now..Its great when all of the North West corner start jumping and swinging them, the atmosphere is improving all the time in Ashburton Grove.

Wigan came out to defend and that is what they did with little in the first half of note. Diarra and Denilson in the centre of the park looked ok, but not as incisive as Fabregas & Flamini who are the centre of the team when they play.. We missed that a bit I felt.

Second half, more and more frustration from the crowd and players.. A dirty tackle on Denilson from Bent a few minutes after a shove was the cause for a bit of a scuffle.. Bent got off with a yellow.. We came close a few times but Wigan still defended well. I started to think we wouldn’t score. Adebayor was very quiet. It looked bad when Walcott went down and was stretchered off after a bad tackle from Heskey, it seems he is ok and not badly injured, he played well which was very pleasing. The Boss brought on Eduardo and Bendtner (who looks very promising). The in the 83rd minute a good passing move saw Gallas play the ball near their area and continue with his run forward, making it to the near post as Sagna put a great cross in.. The header was immense and the celebrations were great, Gallas ran over to us as he seems to a lot now and all was happy, the frustration over, within a minute we broke again, Bendtner making an excellent run and playing it to Rosicky who played a good shot just inside the penalty area in off the post.. Wigan were undone from then and it was a great feeling when we heard Man U lost, so top of the table by 3 points and a game in hand. Not Bad..

I really am warming to Gallas, Toure says here about how great it is to be playing with Gallas as captain! I was sceptical about him but he really is showing his worth. Leading the side, scoring goals when we need them most and looking solid in defence. The resilience and patience of the team is amazing and there is an interview with Wenger here.

Meanwhile, Gilberto going the other way, out of the team with transfer stories rife, the Sun has story on him wanting to go to Juve.

“I would adapt myself well to the Italian league, however Juve should know that I have no intention of starting a war with Arsenal.”

This is fair enough for Gilberto, not in the team now, he obviously wants to play and if that means moving in January so be it. I worry about this as he brings experience and consistency to the team, and while we are playing well it is fine without him in the team, but what happens when we are facing tough opposition with a weakened midfield and little cover. It does seem a bit dodgy, but ‘Arsene knows’ what hes doing!

Our Premiership next game at home is Chelsea on the 16th. That will be a cracker! Cashley Cole says in an article here:

“Compared to what happened to the England guys, I am sure I will get much worse when I go back to Arsenal”

I’m sure he will, he’s a complete idiot and I have very little respect for him. What a *£$%.. Clichy is better than him, as has been shown this year..

Anelka, good on him for the goal on Saturday, has said:

“If you look now at the situation Arsenal are in and look at where I am, then you could say maybe I should have stayed.”

That is so funny, I remember how petulant he was, the whole saga, him joining Real.. What an idiot, now look at him, played for Man City, now Bolton, fighting relegation. Just shows how some players don’t realise how great Arsenal is to be at till they leave. Anyway glad we sold him cause since he left there have been some excellent seasons I wouldn’t change!

Finally a little on the trial of Tresor Mputu, loads of people are reading the articles on this guy, Wneger says here:

“He is a creative player and wants a chance in Europe. He has impressed so far.”

So not giving to much away, that would only fan the flames of speculation, but it sounds interesting, Wenger seems to like him!

See you tomorrow, Sevilla on Tuesday..